rahulmadrid

Much has been said and written about Jose Mourinho this week following his brutal assessments of Iker Casillas and Pepe, and more subtle jibes at the media, fan base and the club president.

This post is not about Mourinho’s behaviour and his many questionable comments and poor decisions off the pitch. It’s not about his next coaching destination, the handsome settlement he will pocket should Real Madrid decide to sack him, or the divide between him and some of his senior players.

Mou has had plenty to say lately.

This post is about Iker Casillas, and the footballing reasons behind Mourinho’s hugely controversial and gutsy decision to drop the club legend.

Most Madridistas take grave offence to any kind of criticism of Casillas. Many think Mourinho’s decision to bench Casillas was rooted in personal differences, and want to see the back of Mourinho for this simple reason. Not me (i.e. I have other reasons to want to see the back of him).

While I’ve been Casillas’ biggest fan since seeing his performance in the 2000 Champions League final and he has always been my favourite goalkeeper, I like to think that no player is un-droppable. Not even an undisputed club and national icon like Casillas.

My first memory of Casillas – the 2000 Champions League final.

Casillas had a poor season in 2012-13 even before sustaining the injury that caused him to be supplanted by his former deputy Diego Lopez, who was brought back to Real Madrid from Sevilla. Casilas was also somewhat short of his best in 2011-12.

Completely forgivable.

After several stellar seasons over which he established himself as the world’s best goalkeeper, Casillas was bound to have a poor season. And a player who isn’t performing at his best should always be dropped if there’s a better option. Casillas will become Real Madrid’s no. 1 again next season once he regains form and fitness.

But Mourinho in my opinion has been quite justified in fielding Diego Lopez for the second half of the season. There are many reasons to criticize Mourinho this season, but his decision to bench Casillas was beyond ballsy – admirable even – and shouldn’t be criticized.

Diego Lopez has been stellar since his return to his boyhood club.

In addition to Casillas’ recent poor form, the fact of the matter is simply that his goalkeeping style doesn’t fit well with Mourinho’s safety-first footballing philosophy.

Just as there are different kinds of strikers – the battering ram (Drogba), the target man (Van Nistelrooy), the offside-line-tightrope-walker (Inzaghi), the fox in the box (Raul), the jackrabbit (Luis Suarez) or the false no. 9 (Messi) – there are different kinds of goalkeepers.

And just as there’s nothing wrong with a coach preferring a target-man striker to a false no. 9, there’s nothing wrong with a coach preferring one kind of goalkeeper to another. This is something that is often overlooked by football fans and pundits, who tend to oversimplify the goalkeeping position.

Iker Casillas is a shot-stopper. His biggest assets are his razor-sharp reflexes and decisiveness in one-on-one situations. He’s an agile diver and is fast across the line. His superlative shot-stopping skills are best represented by these two miracle saves against Sevilla in 2009. In other words, his strengths all revolve around shot-stopping – the stopping of the shot.

Believe it or not, there are aspects to goalkeeping that go beyond making saves and stopping shots. Less-appreciated aspects, but important parts of a goalkeeper’s skillset nonetheless.

Like any other mere mortal, Casillas has weaknesses. He is occasionally indecisive in dealing with corners and crosses (when compared to a Cech or Kahn) and has never been the best at organizing the defensive line (compared to a Buffon or Schmeichel).

Mou prefers aerially dominant goalkeepers like Cech – and Diego Lopez.

That is not to say the aforementioned were/are better goalkeepers. They just happen to have different strengths. Strengths that a coach like Mourinho has every right to value over reflexes or shot-stopping ability.

In a season where Real Madrid have conceded heaps of goals from corner kicks, set pieces and crosses, Mou has every right to field a goalkeeper who is taller and better in the air.

And as Mourinho points out, he has every right to pick the players he believes constitute the team’s best XI.

“I’m a football coach and that’s what I was hired to do,” said the Special One. “One of my duties is to choose who plays and I can assure you that I don’t base it on a coin toss. For hours I think about, discuss, analyze and study my decisions and I try to decide with my head.”

“I like Diego Lopez as a goalkeeper more than Casillas… I like a goalkeeper that comes out and dominates the airspace and plays with his feet,” Mou explained.

“One’s more offensive, the other defensive. I have the right to say this and with me, under normal conditions, Diego Lopez is going to play.”

Then, as Mou often does, he followed up a completely reasonable set of statements with a veiled barb.

“It’s nothing personal, I just like him [Diego Lopez] more as a goalkeeper… I can also say that he likes a coach like Del Bosque or someone with a different profile more.”

That last bit was unnecessary.

However, Mou’s footballing reasons are fair and he shouldn’t be vilified for dropping Casillas. In my opinion, Mourinho deserves praise for having the cojones to make a decision which was always going to be hugely unpopular and make his own position at the club untenable.

Many other coaches would’ve reinstated Casillas to the XI as soon as he recovered from his injury, and they would cite valid reasons. Similarly, Mou’s reasons to bench Casillas are not outlandish but are based on valid beliefs.

No player is too good or too legendary to sit on the bench, not even St. Iker. His benching should only motivate him to return to his best next season, which can only be a good thing.

St. Iker in the flesh (May 2012).

A wise man once said, “football, bloody hell!”

A quarter of an hour into the game, it looked like Real Madrid had the tie in the bag. 2-0 up and with their tails up, things looked good. But an Arjen Robben penalty – nearly saved by Casillas – levelled things, and neither team was able to score another after that. And so on to penalties it went.

Ronaldo and Kaka both saw their spot kicks saved by Neuer. After Alonso scored, Casillas had to save two to keep Real Madrid in it. And he did, showing why he’s earned the moniker St. Iker. The 2nd save was particularly special. However, Ramos could only blast high over the bar under intense pressure. Schweinsteiger scored, taking Bayern to the final in their home stadium. Can’t say they don’t deserve it, as they have been better over the two legs.

There’s been a lot of stupid criticism levelled at Ronaldo, Kaka and Ramos. I won’t dignify it with a response. Instead I’m just going to paste Mourinho’s post-match press conference below as he’s a lot better with words than I am:

“I think it’s difficult for any team to reach the semifinals two straight campaigns and it’s also difficult for a coach to reach them six times in eight years. We deserved to win because both games were tight. It is more difficult to play this match when you’re still in the fight to win the league title than when you’re not. I remember the semifinals I lost with Chelsea against Liverpool. They faced Fulham in the previous clash with their reserve players, while we used our main men in our weekend clash and ended up suffering from that.”

“It’s our fault because we would have used different players in our previous game if we weren’t fighting to win the league title. My men gave a fantastic performance. It is difficult to overcome a 2-1 result. They knew they couldn’t make any mistakes and felt great pressure. They were also exhausted in the penalty shootout. Together, both sides missed five penalties. Only those who shoot miss. I don’t miss because I don’t shoot them. Those who miss have balls and aren’t selfish. They do their best for the team. I am incredibly proud of my men.”

“Everyone makes mistakes. Superhumans only exist in the movies. These men are the best at their level, but people criticise them when they miss a shot. These critics are like people who get exhausted by climbing two flights of stairs and badly need a lift. My men ran like animals despite the pressure and missed in the final stretch, but what do you expect them to do? Would you rather see them die or see Bayern drawing the match? They played to the limit. I’m not here to make excuses, especially for our opponent. Teams that win two or three titles in one season achieve something incredible, but it is very difficult to reach the semifinals in two consecutive campaigns.”

“The final will be disputed between the fifth team in the Premier League and the runners-up in the Bundesliga, and both used their reserve players this weekend, while Real Madrid and Barcelona faced each other in the most important match of the season in the Spanish league. People listened to me when I said the calendar had to be adjusted in these circumstances in Italy, and it made me happy. I don’t have that power or enjoy such respect for my opinions here in Spain. We’ve started the most important month of the season with mid-week games and it’s resulted in yesterday’s and tonight’s results. Bayern won and were luckier than us.”

“The squad feels proud. The players know they have nothing to be sorry for. I’ve told them to go home to their wives and girlfriends and not hide because they have nothing to be ashamed about. I will absolutely try to win this title again with this team. I want to win with these players. It was important for the club and for us to win the Copa del Rey last season. We need six points to win the league and it would be fantastic to do so. This team has great room for improvement and so does the club. Clubs have to adapt to the times. If they believe I can continue to add to the team by staying on, and my players believe so too, then I feel I will stay.”

“I feel the pressure of knowing my players are subjected to great pressure. I currently enjoy the joy of others more than my own, and the same goes during bad times. That’s why this hurts. These players have worked very hard. There are four games left in the season and we have to take the six points we need like we’ve done till now: on our own. We worked hard and fought mightily. We will have had a good season if we win the league title and it will allow my men to feel they’ve done a good job. We will be here fighting for the Champions League again next season.”

“The final will be a good match and I would like Chelsea to win, but I have great respect for Bayern Munchen. Chelsea were heroic yesterday and I know some people believe they are the lords of the game and therefore entitled to criticise Chelsea or Inter Milan’s victory two years ago. I know the Blues behaved like heroes. Chelsea deserve it and Bayern are there too.”

—– Meanwhile, St. Iker posted this photo on Facebook of him trying to cheer up Kaka soon after the match. How lucky is Real Madrid to have Iker Casillas??

While today’s result has me dejected, fact of the matter is that this has been a hugely successful season for Real Madrid. If they pick up six points in their last four games (they will), they will win La Liga with an all-time goalscoring record. And they got incredibly close to making the Champions League final for the first time in a decade. No mean feat. Hala Madrid!!

As the 90th minute of the game approached, Madrid fans were in heaven. The score was 1-1; with an away goal in the bag and a tied scoreline, Madrid would be heavy favourites to progress at home. Bayern would have to chase a victory or a high-scoring draw in Madrid, leaving plenty of space for the world’s best counter-attacking team to blitz through and score.

But it wasn’t to be. Yet again Madrid’s lack of defensive focus came to the fore, as Gomez bundled in a late equalizer (after coming close with a couple of dangerous headers and a half-volley, the goal went in off his left knee after ricocheting off his right foot…). 2-1. Bayern had their win, and they’ll be full off confidence heading to the Bernabeu.

It was a game where Real Madrid saw some astounding Champions League stats sullied. Coming into this game, Madrid hadn’t conceded a first-half goal in their last 26 Champions League games. Before this game, Madrid hadn’t trailed any opposition this season in the Champions League. Bayern made sure both records went out the window within a quarter of an hour

Here are some of the major talking points that have come up in the aftermath of this game.

1. Gomez’s late sucker punch was a bitter pill to swallow.

This is the second time in this season’s Champions League knockout stage that Real conceded a 90th minute goal away from home. It happened previously in the Round of 16 first leg in Moscow, with Pontus Wernbloom scoring late to give the Russian Army side a 1-1 draw. This time, it was Mario Gomez, who looked threatening all game long and got the goal he deserved late on. Gomez truly is a wonderful no. 9 with a problematic physical presence. Sergio Ramos may be a big guy, but in front of Gomez he doesn’t look it. And what’s great about Gomez is that he moves very fast for a man his size. His performance ultimately deserved a goal, but he might want to thank a couple of Madrid players who did their best to help him get it…

2. Coentrao and Pepe committed silly errors in the build-up to the goal.

In my preview, I wrote that Marcelo’s tendency to commit to tackles too early would be suicidal against Robben and Lahm. I alluded to Coentrao being a safer, more defensively sound option. And while Coentrao did fairly well to keep Robben out of the game for long stretches, it was ultimately his decision to commit to a lazy tackle that resulted in the goal. When faced with Philipe Lahm, Coentrao failed to stay on his feet (conventional wisdom says you stay on your feet when facing a speedy winger or fullback) and attempted a lazy, poorly directed tackle on Lahm. Lahm skipped past the challenge and was left with acres of time and space to cross. What I feared Robben would do to Marcelo was instead acted out by Lahm on Coentrao.

But Coentrao wasn’t the only guilty party on the goal. Lahm’s driven cross was a good one, but Pepe had the opportunity to slide and knock the ball out of play past the near post. But for some reason he chose not to, and Gomez was able to bundle home.

3. The Ozil/Di Maria experiment didn’t work.

One of the most interesting tactical aspects of the game was Mourinho’s decision to temporarily switch Di Maria and Ozil’s positions. Midway through the first half, Ozil was shunted out onto the right flank (where he has played before for Madrid mind you) while Di Maria played centrally almost as a number 10. This change was probably made to provide more pressing and defensive discipline down the middle, as Di Maria is the most defensively disciplined of Madrid’s attackers.

Problem is though that Di Maria is no number 10. While he does have the ability to pick out a good through pass, his first instinct is to dribble and try to beat players with pace and trickery. In a crowded central midfield against an organized Bayern side, Di Maria had no joy. Mourinho seemed to realize this and switched Di Maria and Ozil back to their natural positions in the second half.

Di Maria generally had a very poor game, dribbling like a headless chicken at times. There was very little of the guile and intelligence that we’ve come to expect from him. Clearly, El Fideo is still working up to match sharpness after his recent return from injury.

4. Poor Alonso = Poor Real Madrid

In my preview, I alluded to Madrid’s over-dependence on Alonso, and the fact that their play suffers considerably when the Red Beard isn’t playing or isn’t playing well. Bayern did a fantastic job pressuring Alonso. While he did play some fine long-range passes, he was otherwise unable to control the play as he is accustomed to doing, and cut an exhausted figure by the end of the game. Madrid fans have been pleading all season long for Sahin to be integrated into the lineup in order to give Alonso some much-needed rest, but this hasn’t really happened.

A tired Alonso was run ragged by Bayern's midfield.

As I feared before the game, Bayern have figured out how to minimize Alonso’s influence. Come the 2nd leg, Mourinho will have to figure out a way to counter this if Real are to get a victory.

5. Mourinho’s substitutions were not (completely) to blame.

Here’s a look at the three substitions:

70 min: Ozil off, Marcelo on – after Coentrao had done well to hold his position against Robben in the first half, the Dutchman was beginning to pick up his game in the second half. Mourinho decided to send on Marcelo to play on the left-wing and help keep Robben and Lahm in check. Additionally, sending in Marcelo would mean that Ronaldo would be brought into the game more. Anyone who’s watched a Real Madrid game in the past couple of seasons knows that Ronaldo thrives when he has Marcelo on the overlap. Therefore, sending on Marcelo seemed a sound tactical strategy at the time. The decision to sub off Ozil made sense as he was clearly beginning to tire, and needed rest ahead of El Clasico (for the record, this is the gazillionth time Ozil has been subbed off on the 70-minute mark by Mourinho).

However, Marcelo’s positioning didn’t make a whole lot of sense as he didn’t stick to the left wing as I thought he would. Instead he drifted to the middle and even found himself on the right wing, which is where he committed that nasty and unnecessary challenge on Thomas Mueller. Most importantly, he was nowhere to be found when Lahm skinned Coentrao on the left flank. Therefore, while it seemed to make sense to send Marcelo on, the instructions he was given were clearly partly responsible for the Gomez goal.

Marcelo's biggest contribution to the game was a dirty tackle on Thomas Muller.

79 min: Di Maria off, Granero on - as I mentioned earlier, Di Maria had a poor game and it was only ever a matter of time before he came off. By introducing Granero, Mourinho hoped Madrid would have more ball possession in midfield, as well as an additional body in midfield to help defend the surge of Bayern attacks. This unfortunately didn’t work out as Granero saw very little of the ball.

84 min: Benzema off, Higuain on – Mourinho sent on Higuain to provide fresher legs upfront, with the hope that Pipita would be able to pressure Bayern’s defenders and midfielders. In addition, with Bayern constantly surging forward, Madrid were looking to attack on the break, and Higuain’s runs and off-the-ball movement make him perfect for this form of attack. Some people have suggested that Kaka should have come on and Ronaldo should have played as centre-forward. While it’s true that CR7 is a good centre-forward, playing him there would have meant that Marcelo would have been the only speedy attacking outlet, with Di Maria having been subbed off earlier. Therefore I completely understand Mourinho’s reasons for making this change.

6. A tired Madrid will have to overcome a fresh Bayern in the 2nd leg.

Had Madrid been scheduled to play any team other than Barca this weekend, Mourinho would have been able to rest multiple players for what will be a high-pressure 2nd leg in Madrid next Wednesday. But as luck would have it, Madrid play none other than their direct title rivals this Saturday. The marginal 4-point lead means that should Madrid lose to Barca, the Cules will have all the momentum and confidence going into the final stretch of the league.

Whether Madrid win, draw or lose on Saturday, one thing is for certain – the game will take a lot out of the players physically and mentally. Games against Barca always involve a lot of running around and chasing shadows, and demand the highest levels of concentration. Unfortunately, the close title race means Mourinho will be loathe to rest too many players. Or will he? With Mourinho, you never know. He will have to find a way to intelligently rotate his players without reducing the quality of the lineup too much. He has his work cut out for him; then again, this is why they pay him the big $$$s. Or should I say €€€s.

On the contrary, Bayern Munich can afford to rest their entire starting line-up this weekend should they so wish. Bayern have no chance of wresting the Bundesliga crown away from Borussia Dortmund, so coach Jupp Heynckes will be able to rest all his star men to keep them fresh and hungry for the Madrid game. Expect at least half the lineup that will take to the Bernabeu next week to be benched.

Ribery and Gomez are just two of the Bayern players that will be benched this weekend.

Ultimately, what this means is that a physically tired and mentally exhausted Real Madrid will have to face a fresh Bayern side who, despite the disappointment of falling behind in their domestic title race, have their tails up following their 1st leg victory in Munich.

The bottom line: Given Madrid’s poor performance, a 1-2 reverse away from home is far from a disastrous result given the precious away goal. Madrid always score goals at home, so if they improve their defending, they should be able to progress. At this point the tie is very finely balanced indeed. I’d give Bayern a 55:45 advantage going into the 2nd leg – not so much due to the aggregate scoreline itself, but due to the fact they will be fitter and fresher than Real Madrid come the 2nd leg.

Interestingly enough, the last time Madrid lost a Champions League knockout round first leg 1-2 away in Munich, they not only overcame the deficit in the 2nd leg but went on to win the Champions League… this happened in 2002, when Madrid lost the first leg of the quarterfinals to Bayern 1-2, before triumphing 2-0 at home. I’m not necessarily implying that history will repeat itself, but I am saying that Real Madrid still have a very good chance of progressing. As Mourinho said, Real Madrid won’t need to pull off a historic victory of biblical proportions to make the final. “A normal victory” (Mou’s words) like a 1-0 or 3-1 would be sufficient. Bayern did very well to restrict Real Madrid to just the one goal in Munich, but Madrid could well be a different story altogether. As Real Madrid legend Juanito once said,

“90 minutes at the Bernabeu is a long time.”

Note: Be sure to also check out Corey’s extensive preview over at RMFB.

On Tuesday, Real Madrid meet Bayern Munich in the Champions League semifinal first leg, in one of the classic European match-ups of this century. Having vanquished CSKA and APOEL, Real Madrid now find themselves in this, a match-up that actually feels like a big European tie (with due respect to CSKA and APOEL).

Two-legged encounters between Los Merengues and FC Hollywood have always been pulsating affairs, whilst off-the-pitch banter and mudslinging have tended to add an aura of tension and resentment to proceedings. Be it ex-Barca player Mark Van Bommel’s ill-advised decision to make an “up yours” gesture to the Bernabeu crowd in 2007, or Oliver Kahn’s indignation with what he called Real Madrid’s “showboating football” in 2002, meetings between the two sides have always involved plenty of controversy.

This season, the narrative will be further enriched by the fact that one of Bayern’s main attacking threats – Arjen Robben – played for Real Madrid not too long ago and will have a point to prove, while two of Madrid’s key players – Mesut Ozil and Sami Khedira – are German internationals who regularly play alongside Bayern’s own German stars for Die Maanschaft, the national team. One can be sure that Ozil, Khedira, Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Mueller, etc. will cast aside the friendships forged during Germany’s memorable run to the 2010 World Cup semifinals and prepare to do battle.

Lahm won't get any love from Ozil and Khedira come Tuesday.

The cross-pollination between the two teams isn’t just limited to the players either. Bayern’s current coach Jupp Heynckes wrote his name into the history books at Real Madrid when he led the team to the Champions League title in 1998, ending a 31-year drought. Despite this mammoth achievement, he was sacked soon after as a result of the team’s poor showing in La Liga. One of the fringe players in his Real Madrid squad that season was a certain Aitor Karanka, who is now assistant coach at Real Madrid. Karanka made his first-team debut at Athletic Bilbao five years earlier, under Heynckes. Fast-forward to 2010: Bayern Munich lose the Champions League final to an Inter Milan coached by none other than Real Madrid’s current entrenador Jose Mourinho.

Heynckes' Champions League triumph with Real Madrid in 1998 remains his biggest career achievement to date. Real Madrid will hope it stays that way.

The last time these two sides met was in the Round of 16 back in 2007. The first leg at the Bernabeu saw Real Madrid secure a nervy 3-2 victory, with David Beckham’s fabulous performance giving Real Madrid a barely-deserved victory. What happened in the second leg has long been burned into Madridistas’ memories, despite our very best efforts to forget it forever.

Real Madrid kicked off. Fernando Gago passed the ball back to Roberto Carlos, who miscontrolled the ball, ceding possession to Bayern’s Hasan Salihamidzic. Salihamidzic dribbled into the empty space and squared the ball to Roy Makaay, who swept the ball into the goal past Iker Casillas. 10 seconds into kick-off – with many fans still stepping on toes to get to their seats – Bayern Munich had taken the lead. In doing so, they set a Champions League record that will take some beating. Real Madrid went on to lose 2-1 and finished level on aggregate with Bayern (4-4), but got knocked out due to the away goals rule. Sadly, Roberto Carlos’ mistake hastened his departure from the club, with the Brazilian legend claiming he felt like the scapegoat for Real Madrid’s exit.

Roberto Carlos tearfully announces his departure from Real Madrid.

Madrid fans will hope their current crop of stars will be able to make up for the 2007 disaster by defeating Bayern Munich so they can return to the spectacular Allianz Arena in May to contest the final; a final that could see them take on eternal rivals Barcelona in what would be the most eagerly anticipated Champions League final in history. And while the tie looks evenly matched, it must be said that Real Madrid’s form this season gives them a slight edge over their Bavarian opposition. And look, Arsene Wenger agrees with me.

The final will be held in Bayern Munich's Allianz Arena.

The teams go into the clash on the back of very differing performances in their respective domestic leagues. Bayern Munich’s midweek match saw them lose 1-0 to Bundesliga title rivals Borussia Dortmund. Arjen Robben had a nightmare game, playing Dortmund’s goalscorer onside for the goal, missing a glorious scoring chance when it seemed easier to score than to miss, and seeing a penalty saved. The enduring moment from the match was Dortmund defender Neven Subotic getting in Robben’s face after the penalty miss. Bayern then drew their weekend match against Mainz 0-0, meaning their Bundesliga titles hopes are effectively over.

Subotic trolls Robben

Real Madrid on the other hand go into this game with crucial back-to-back wins against Atletico Madrid and Sporting Gijon under their belt, wins that have secured Los Merengues’ 4-point lead at the top of the table and have ensured that morale is high going into Munich. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a memorable hat-trick against Atletico and scored against Gijon, and is going into the game in spectacular form.

That being said, form often goes out of the window in matches like the one coming up on Tuesday. A number of other factors will determine whether Bayern will contest the final in their own stadium, or whether Madrid will be making a second trip to Munich come May 19th:

1. Bayern Munich’s suspect defence

Over the two quarterfinal legs against Marseille and the midweek clash against Borussia Dortmund, Bayern displayed various defensive shortcomings that will need to be addressed if the Bavarians are to contain Madrid’s record-breaking strikeforce. Since Daniel Van Buyten was sidelined with a foot injury in January, Bayern’s aerial defence has looked rather suspect. Holger Badstuber and Jerome Boateng have both looked uncertain against incoming crosses. When the likes of Mathieu Valbuena and Shinji Kagawa – neither exactly giants of the modern game – are granted free headers, it’s a problem. The likes of Ronaldo and Ramos should look to exploit this using their own aerial prowess, while set piece deliveries from Ozil, Alonso and Di Maria will need to be on the mark.

Badstuber and Boateng.

Aerial shortcomings aside, Bayern’s central defensive pairing lack composure on the ball when pressured. Both Badstuber and Boateng were guilty of some nervy moments when faced with Marseille’s  modest pressing. They could be forced into costly mistakes when faced with the high-speed breakneck pressing of Ronaldo, Higuain/Benzema and Di Maria.

2. Madrid’s midfield shape

Mourinho would do well to observe Borussia Dortmund’s midfield shape against Bayern Munich midweek. Upon ceding possession, the Borussians were impressively quick in altering their formation from a 4-2-3-1 to a 4-4-2, with the midfield flat four helping to defend against Bayern’s wing menaces Ribery and Robben. Madrid’s midfield positioning will be crucial to ensuring that “Robbery” aren’t given a free run at wingbacks Marcelo and Arbeloa, who lack defensive positioning and pace respectively. What happens on the flanks may well decide the outcome of the tie…

3. Cristiano Ronaldo and Marcelo/Coentrao vs. Robben and Lahm

Direct clashes like these are what make big Champions League nights so special. The confrontation down Madrid’s left flank (Bayern’s right flank) is a truly mouthwatering prospect, and the pairing which wins this battle will do their team a hell of a lot of good. While Ronaldo, Robben and Lahm are dead-certain to start, it will be interesting to see whether Mourinho opts for the superior attacking threat of Marcelo or the more defensively sound Coentrao at left-back. Marcelo’s rampaging runs up the left flank in support of Ronaldo could be used to force Robben back, therefore diminishing his own attacking threat. The significant attacking threat of Robben/Lahm could be neutralized should Ronaldo and Marcelo have a great game down that flank.

Marcelo - attack the best form of defence?

Having said that, should Robben receive a quick pass while Marcelo is stranded upfield, Real Madrid will be in trouble. While the likes of Alonso and Khedira will do their best to cover for Marcelo, neither of them will be able to catch Robben if he escapes them.

Even when Marcelo is in his defensive position, he will have to curb his tendency to commit to tackles too early. Against Robben, this would be suicidal as the Dutchman will simply turn inside out, leave Marcelo on his backside and eat up the cow’s pasture in front of him before squaring for the likes of Gomez. Marcelo would be better advised to hold his position and force Robben into cutting inside, where the likes of Alonso, Khedira, Ramos and Pepe have a decent chance of blocking his dribble, shot or pass.

If Mourinho opts for Coentrao in Munich, it will mean a safer ploy on paper; a defender who won’t be able to push Robben and Lahm back as much as Marcelo, and won’t combine as well with Cristiano Ronaldo, but one who has decent positional sense and defensive ability.

4. Ribery and Alaba vs. Di Maria and Arbeloa

Arbeloa will have to have one of his best games of the season to contain Ribery. Arbeloa’s form has dipped a little in recent weeks, and he will have to be ultra-vigilant to stop Scarface, who has been one of the most productive players in Europe this season. Ribery did not get any change from Marseille left back Cesar Azpilicueta in the quarterfinal first leg; however Azpilicueta has more pace than Arbeloa, and there could be a case for Coentrao at right-back, although I doubt this will actually happen. Ribery will occasionally be fed aerial passes over the top from Bayern’s talented young left-back David Alaba. Arbeloa should be alert to ensure that Ribery does not get past him and onto the ball with open space ahead of him.

Ribery doesn't want to be the only Scarface in town.

Meanwhile, Di Maria will almost certainly start on Tuesday. His unpredictable, unbalancing dribbling and passing will be very difficult for young Alaba to handle, as will his pace on the break. Also, his defensive work-rate and running will be key to ensuring that Arbeloa is not up against Ribery on his own.

5. Xabi Alonso

Madrid’s most important player is not record-breaking goalscorer Cristiano Ronaldo or captain and goalkeeping legend Iker Casillas, but deep-lying central midfielder Xabi Alonso. Madrid suffer from an overdependence on Alonso; when the Basque isn’t playing or isn’t playing well, the quality of Madrid’s play drops down a few notches. Indeed Alonso’s vision, distribution and intelligence are fundamental to this team, to the point that Madrid looks an entirely different (inferior) side without him. Heynckes will have taken note of this, and will be thinking long and hard about how to neutralize Alonso. If Bayern find a way to nullify Alonso’s presence, they will become favourites to progress.

6. Mario Gomez

Gomez has been one of the most prolific goalscorers in Europe this season and has 11 goals in this season’s edition of the Champions League. A classic target man with an imposing physical presence and clinical finishing ability inside the penalty box, Gomez is rarely seen involved in build-up play, providing assists to teammates or beating defenders with pace or trickery. But he can be counted on to put the ball in the back of the net.

Gomez celebrates yet another goal.

Bayern’s attacking shape is perfectly set up to give Gomez the best chance to get himself on the scoresheet. Ribery and Robben stretch the defence, while Mueller makes intelligent runs into the box to drag defenders with him. This stretch-and-drag combination creates space for Gomez to exploit. Madrid’s defenders as well as Alonso and Khedira will have to be focused for the entire 90 minutes to ensure that Gomez isn’t given free sights on goal, as he rarely misses.

7. Individual brilliance

Both teams are loaded with some of the best players in the world in their respective positions. Their moments of individual brilliance will go a long way in taking their teams through to the final.

Few players have outshone Gomez in terms of goalscoring this season, but Cristiano Ronaldo is one of them. He has found his range from distance in recent weeks, and his swishing, dipping freekicks and long-range rockets are incredibly difficult for any goalkeeper to contend with. Meanwhile, Kaka is having his best season since joining Real Madrid. His intelligence, directness and shooting ability could play a big role in the tie even if the Brazilian starts on the bench. If he does start on the bench, it will be Mesut Ozil who will be charged with pulling Madrid’s attacking strings. Ozil’s vision and flair will be fundamental; if he finds his peak passing range in Munich, Bayern Munich will be in a world of trouble.

I’ve already mentioned Ribery, Robben and Gomez, but the leadership and performance of club captain Philipe Lahm will be very important for Bayern. If Lahm is able to keep Ronaldo in check, the Portuguese star could cut a frustrated figure. If Madrid do take the lead, Lahm will have to ensure that his teammates heads don’t drop.

The individual performances of the two goalkeepers will also be key. Casillas has been the best goalkeeper in the world for some years now, but Neuer has arguably been the best goalkeeper in Europe this season. Both custodians will likely be kept busy over the two legs, and the team whose shot-stopper performs better could be the one that makes it through to the final.

The battle of the goalkeepers could determine the result.

And finally, there is the grand tactical battle between Mourinho and Heynckes. Heynckes has been around forever but has won few major trophies in his coaching career. As I mentioned earlier, his Champions League triumph with Real Madrid 14 years ago remains his biggest achievement. Mou on the other hand has racked up the silverware everywhere he’s been, and won’t want to leave Real Madrid before winning the Champions League. The two coaches’ tactical decisions will play as big a role as their players’ on-field-performances. Will Mourinho employ a three-man midfield? Will Higuain or Benzema get the start in Munich? Or both? Will Heynckes risk the classy but unfit Schweinsteiger or stick to a midfield duo of Kroos and Luiz Gustavo? Come Tuesday, everything will become clear.

There’s nothing else to say, except: bring it on. I leave you with an image of…. Cribenguainaldo!!!

Courtesy: Madridista Mac at Realmadridfootballblog.com